Nigeria has 0.4% chance of winning the World Cup in Russia – Researchers

The Nigerian national team Super Eagles have a 0.4 per cent chance of winning the 2018 World Cup in Russia according to a rigorous mathematical calculation of combined bookmakers’ odds.

To win the biggest football tournament Nigeria must have to get past Croatia, Iceland and Argentina in the group stage.

2014 World Cup host and five times winner, Brazil are favourite to win the World Cup with a 16.6% chance to make new records.

Holders Germany have a 15.8% while Spain who are placed third have a 12.5% while 1998 winners France have a 12.1% chance.

Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Panama are all rated to win the tournament as 0.1%.

Researchers in Austria have combined bookmakers’ odds with complex statistical modelling to predict who will win the World Cup.

The model simulated the tournament millions of times to forecast the outcome of every possible game that could be played.

Below are the probabilities that each team will win.

1) Brazil – 16.6%

2) Germany – 15.8%

3) Spain – 12.5%

4) France – 12.1%

5) Argentina – 8.4%

6) Belgium – 7.3%

7) England – 4.9%

8) Portugal – 3.4%

9) Uruguay – 2.7%

10) Croatia – 2.5%

11) Colombia – 2.2%

12) Russia – 2.1%

13) Poland – 1.5%

14) Denmark – 0.9%

15) Mexico – 0.8%

16) Switzerland – 0.8%

17) Sweden – 0.6%

18) Egypt – 0.5%

19) Serbia – 0.5%

20) Senegal – 0.5%

21) Peru – 0.4%

22) Nigeria – 0.4%

23) Iceland – 0.4%

24) Japan – 0.3%

25) Australia – 0.2%

26) Morocco – 0.2%

27) Costa Rica – 0.2%

28) South Korea – 0.2%

29) Iran – 0.2%

30) Tunisia – 0.1%

31) Saudi Arabia – 0.1%

32) Panama – 0.1%